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SHOCK: Is Trump Really Beating EVERY DEM for 2020?

SHOCK: Is Trump Really Beating EVERY DEM for 2020?

We have a voice mail number. That number is 2192, David P here is a voicemail, from someone 
who seems to have a misinformed right­wing friend. Let me put it that way. Hi David, career, I love the show. Keep up the great work, anyways, a Republican friend of mine 
said that Trump is leading the polls, 40 points ahead of any democratic candidate. Is this true also… Do you think it’s a realistic possibility that Democrats may lose the house in November, should we 
be concerned about that? Thanks, so on the second question first, Democrats are widely expected to maintain their control of 
the House of Representatives in 2020. if that changes, we will have new forecasting for you, no Donald Trump is not leading every Democratic candidate by 40 points in fact he’s losing to every 
Democratic candidate, he’s losing by the largest margin of Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden but Michael Bloomberg, I believe is also leading Trump and hypothetical 2020 Matos. What I will say 
is, I question how much those hypothetical polls are worth right now. But your friend is wrong. Either way, there is no factual basis that would suggest Trump is leading 
anybody by 40 points or even four points in national hypothetical match­ups where it starts to get dicey and we have to look more at the details. And this is why blanket saying anybody beats Trump
in November or simply saying, Only my candidate beat, Trump in November. The reality is that November is likely to come down to some key states, and when you look at some of those key 
states, including states like Wisconsin, for example, in hypothetical head­to­head “matchups between Trump and the people vying to be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominees those 
numbers look okay, for Trump. And when you step back and say, “Well we saw in 2016 that Trump can lose the national popular 
vote by three but still win the electoral college. That’s when you have to start and think maybe it doesn’t matter that Trump’s losing to burning and “bian by four because if it tightens to just three 
that could be accurate. And yet, if Trump does okay in Wisconsin whatever those other key states are Trump can still be re­elected. And that’s why I don’t know how much we should be necessarily 
talking about and thinking about the race in the context of those hypothetical match­up polls. I actually tweeted last night. I don’t believe a lot of people regularly tweet me. They say David only 
X can be Donald Trump in the Fall, Bernie supporters will say Only Bernie can be Trump some BI and supporters will say only bite and can beat Trump Yang supporters. Still say Yang shouldn’t 
have dropped out because only gang can beat Trump. Cool, see, supporters will say tools must stay “indices­only tools you can beat Trump.
I don’t think that’s true about any of the candidates. I believe this election is fundamentally going to come down to, does the Democratic nomination process, do self­inflict the damage, for example, a 
very ugly convention can that it’s attacking each other in ways that will lead to depressed, turnout in November. That is question one, that will determine the outcome in November number two, what is
the perception of the economy? Notice that I don’t say what is the actual state of the economy 03/03/20  Page 14 of 16
davidpakmanshow­2020­03­02­commercialfree perception is all that matters is the economy perceived to be doing well, it is very difficult. 
Historically, this is just the fact, it’s very difficult historically to knock out an incumbent president running for reelection when the economy is perceived to be doing well, if the stock market is up, 
and unemployment is down, that is perceived to be a pretty good economy, even if for a lot of people stagnant wages, under employment. We know I’m not arguing, I’m saying, the perception is 
what matters. I think that is fundamentally what will determine the results of November.
If Democrats don’t self­inflict damage in getting to a nominee it is going to be about who chooses to go out and vote. What is the turnout and what is the perception of the economy at the time?
Tell me I’m wrong, I would love to hear from you on the bonus show today, New Yorkers are dealing with day one of the state­wide state­wide plastic bag ban, we have a new image of Earth’s 
new mini moon and like mini moon and two women in Boston have been charged after police say they attacked a woman and her daughter, because they overheard them speaking Spanish very ugly 
stuff, from here in the city of Boston. All of those stories and more on today’s bonus so don’t miss it. Become a member or a patron to get 
instant access.

Reader Comments

  1. given Trump's record, Osama Bin Laden should be able to beat Trump, but we all know how the game is played, people get emotionally invested in "Their team" and have the idea of themselves "winning" even when voting to remove rights that they have, increase costs to them, and make it so that they get paid less for the same amount of work.

  2. The short answer is yes. The long answer is yessssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

  3. what all the polls are failing to really pick up on is if the coveted 65+ voters are actually switching to blue or if the same lifelong blue no matter who voters are just picking biden.

  4. They also believe that trump has been shot at seven times and that if you drank from a hose as a child you wont get corona virus, lol.

  5. Yall stilling believe this idiot Fagman. He was wrong about Russiagate, he was wrong about Ukrainegate, he was wrong about impeachment, and he was wrong about progressives rising. This guy is a political hack and will keep getting everything wrong.

  6. 40 points. Right away I could tell that the math does not all up. For someone to lead EVERY state by 40 points, you would have to include liberal states like California. It is practically impossible for Trump to lead 40 points in California even minus how he cut funding from CA for emergency after the wildfire incident. Adding that incident in and I would dare say that California would would vote a very heavy majority against Trump.

  7. Everyone will see the stock market open way down on Monday. Stock market futures are current down 1000 points.

  8. Trump will expose Biden’s cognitive decline and going to run ad after ad in the rust belt attacking him on NAFTA and TPP. It’s not possible for Biden to win

  9. You guys remember when Bernie was within 2 points in South Carolina? Ahead in Virginia and North Carolina? That was before he started taking body blows.
    Trump has already been savaged. His numbers will never go down that much. The same can't be said for whomever he faces. That is what is key to understand.

  10. Look, Biden is going to get hit with ad after ad about NAFTA vote in the Midwest. His Iraq War vote hurts him everywhere. Trump will win at least 3 Midwest states if Biden is the nominee. Game over.

  11. I have said this many times. The whole process of allowing anybody to run makes for a very disjointed and divisive process. Any campaign promises any candidate makes will most likely require someone in the House to put together a bill, which then must go through the Senate before it hits the president's desk. To me, it seems like the current sitting democrats (as a unified party) and maybe all of the democratic governors should have locked themselves away and developed a singular platform which they believe that can get passed. Then, find a single candidate (a true "leader") within their party, who is squeaky clean, middle aged, educated, experienced in domestic and foreign policies, and ex-military who they then put up as the one and only candidate. Forego all the expense and bother of the debates and primaries. Forego all the expense and hoopla of a convention. Save the taxpayers millions (and make a point of pointing that out). Focus all energies and donations to getting that person elected. End of story. Much like the parliamentary system of the UK, Canada and Australia, the candidate represents the party and is essentially the leader of the party. Obviously its too late now, but maybe in the future it could be something worth talking about.

  12. What a shocker! I know I don’t want to vote for Joe Biden. I may have to, but I sure as hell don’t want to.

  13. He's losing to every democratic candidate 😂 This comes from the same people that said hillary would win or that Bernie would win

  14. Okay.. Something that I want to share with you. I got a 'Democratic' Poll invite last week. I usually don't fill them out, BUT I decided to look at it. The questions were negative about Nancy Pelosi, positive about Trump. You COULDN'T choose anything positive about Pelosi. And you couldn't choose anything negative about Trump. IF I tried to put choose anything positive about Pelosi, it would tell me that I was ineligible to complete the survey poll. This is why I think Trump has been saying that he is winning in the polls. They have a skewed survey poll that is being sent out via email and text messages that basically won't allow you to say anything negative about Trump. I ALMOST threw my phone.

  15. Historically, we've never had a president like Trump. So making predictions based on past elections does not apply here. The only way to beat a fake populist, is with a real populist, Bernie Sanders.

  16. But again: The oilprice has broken through 30 USD/brl. So the question of whether Trump breathes or not seems insignificant.
    How that will play out job wise is not at all clear. When such an important commodity as energy drops so low a lot of businesses and consumers get a lot more for their money.

  17. Polls are useless, people should have learnt this by now.
    my prediction
    bernie vs trump
    50% vs 50%
    biden vs trump
    45% vs 55%

  18. I agree, there are no front line candidates on any party that have the country’s best interests foremost.
    The trick is to do the least damage until someone with morals and strength of character steps up to the plate, and their peers recognise those values that will propel the country, and them to political stardom.
    Until then you’ll get the same third rate pollsters and opportunists that have taken your money for the last thirty years.

  19. Oh is Trump losing to every demorcrat like he was to Hilary in 2016? Hmm oh & how bout the Mueller investigation remember it's Mueller time. Oh and then remember impeachment, acquitted forever but yeah Pac-Man Trump is the big loser, keep saying that for the next eight months and maybe you'll have a Deja Vu on Election night 2020

  20. If Trump is beating any Democrat among Republicans by only 40 points then he's going to lose – by a landslide! 😂

  21. I remember the anger that Warren showed and made claims that I think were untrue. Here is where I question that is that the left or progressive (of which I am part when it comes to economic ideas) But these attacks against white men seems to me that they are practicing what they claim to hate namely discrimination on ethnic group or gender. I think the "super" delegates as part of the D.N.C. was because they thought the nominee had to be either a woman and or a minority. I am not against either of those groups. But it should based on their ideas and ability not gender or race. I believe there are two genders and I do not hate those who think I am wrong. But I think of them hate me for the claims of two genders. It is the orthodoxy of the left that in part helped Trump win. If he wins again it may end democracy in our nation.

  22. Exactly David, spot on. Trump is a huge danger because so many people believe his lies. The world sees a very divided opposition to trump and that alone will secure his victory.

  23. Uhhh yea…democrats don’t have ANYONE that can beat him AND yes…the democrats are going to loose the house…you loose…

  24. I can't see Biden beating Trumo under any circumstances. Bernie I see as having the best chance as he offers proper popularism vs fake popularism of Trump, he is best place to attack Trump on his record

  25. Trump's approval ratings haven't shifted in years. Everybody's decided whether they want him or not, and no factor or environment is going to change that. The only variable is voter turnout.

  26. I am not trying to be tribalistic, but Bernie is the one to beat Trump. In the polls, he has been beating Trump by the widest margin since 2016 and that hasn't changed. That is an empirical fact.

  27. What the hell is this guy smoking that's calling in Trump couldn't lead f**** dead dogs to water he's just a narcissist piece of s*** going to destroy this country and kill a lot of people get rid of this Teletubby bastard

  28. Keep stressing unity. Bernie and Biden supporters can HATE each other but work together toward one common coal of getting that ass-hat out of office.

  29. Trump has a good chance of winning because in Canada there are so many misinformed people if you listen to Trump speaking all the things he has done how he brags you would think he's gotten things done if you listen to Fox & Friends and other people on Fox you would think he's got things done but when you check out what he's really done officially on paper it's the total opposite people do not have the time to look at alternative news programs that tell the truth or for that matter even to judge and know who is telling the truth or not it's easy to see that Trump is a liar and it's unfortunate that so many people believe him

  30. This is the epitome of American stupidity. Someone tells him something, and he is incapable of verification by himself; he has to call David

  31. Sure David trump is losing the Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden just like he was losing to Hillary Clinton you liar

  32. The "only [insert candidate here] can win" posters are more than likely trolls. David is normally spot-on when it comes to most things, but I think he's a bit naïve in this regard.

  33. That's it David, I'm voting for Trump if Biden wins the nomination. I'm tired of Americans voting against their best interest so let's just burn it down.

  34. Yeah the civilised world is baffled.. If rational thought was prevailing he should be polling around 20 %.. I'm sorry this is the truth.

  35. America please do NOT stay home get OUT and VOTE OUR Democracy depends on us doing what we all did in 2018!!!! Let OUR voices be heard!!!
    We need a real leader not a CONMAN!!!

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  36. the American people must be so stupid how can Trump even be polling above 10%..the world is baffled at how this complete idiot,crook,con man is still in office..only in America..oh well it is funny to watch the slimeball and his cronies get away with daily stuff ups..keep the jokes coming America the world is laughing

  37. Hey, heads in sand people, Trump will win 2020 in a landslide. The best the DIMocrats have come up with is a criminal with obvious signs of dementia and a millionaire socialist who got rich after entering government! Best you stock up on anti-depressants because Trump will smash them in any debate LOL

  38. Why does Davidly seemingly randomly pronounce words like a dbag? Toolsie?!? when I hear that my first thought is oh you're special. No one says it like that player.

  39. What poll is this man's friend looking at lol; that buffoon is not leading by no 40 points. He must be looking at the Rasmussen poll who leans right anyway.

  40. Excellent take. This is why I subscribed to this channel. It can be an honest, straight forward assessment a lot of times. If a democrat was in the white house and were in the majority in much of government, then they could withstand the infighting and complaining about each other but, at this point, they need to pull out all of the stops to help win back the white house. That means, candidates state their positions on issues and highlight the difference between you and your opponent but, do not put down anyone or get into petty squabbles as it only feeds division and weakens the chances of taking back control. In the end it means putting aside differences and pulling everyone together no matter who ends up with the nomination.

  41. David I hope you lose this is the devil himself and I very believe it or God-bless you gotta give you strange to tell the truth and we love you will stand by you

  42. It's like I said people who attack because they have a different language they're not humans the animals what actually animals is better than them II can say low life I hope the low life here this nothing as nothing more if it's a police is a doctor I don't care what it is everythink another human being for no pairing reason because of their language your low life

  43. 1:20 For the "pole" that Trump is leading by 40 points ( 70 to 30 ). Maybe it was a republican pole, lifted from a pre-trump ralley screening questionar.

    As a for example . . .
    During impeachment, Trump just counted how how many Republican house members held the ranks.

    Below might be the root of the miss understanding from during impeachement.
    The article says "showed Trump defeating former Vice President Joe Biden by 3 percentage points"
    Now if someone was half listeing "three precentage points", could turn jnto 30%. And that sounds great, so it gets forwarded with " This is great knews. Wait why cant I find these numbers reported? Must be anti-republican media conspricacy"

  44. Biden supporters: "Bernie will lose to Trump because of not yet released scandals that will damage Bernie in the general."

    Bernie Supporters: "Biden will lose Trump because of what we already know about Biden."

  45. I wonder where the 40 points figure came from, like which site in particular told him that? I'm curious.

  46. I think that the caller misunderstood his cultist friend. He likely meant that cheeseburger eating Dumbo Don has GAINED 40 POUNDS over any Democrat.

  47. The trouble with a lot of the viewers of this channel is that they can’t understand how or why Trump is so popular. This is because they live in a bubble of similar minded people. They need to get out, talk to people in key states, and learn why orange man is still popular.

  48. It's dangerous to rely on polls. People think they reflect reality when what the reflect is the opinions of poll takers. People willing to take a poll are people interested in what the poll is asking. A lot of people who aren't interested in taking polls will still be voting and they might not vote in the same percentages as the ones who did take the poll, not to mention sometime people who take polls might not bother voting.

    ""Healthcare in Israel is universal and participation in a medical insurance plan is compulsory. All Israeli residents are entitled to basic health care as a fundamental right. … """

  50. Having dealt with Americans my whole life, my opinion of them has always been very low. Trump has vindicated that opinion in spades, if not actually lowering it.Trump supporters represent the largest single block of voters because Trump is the quintessential American.

  51. We desperately need a new senate. Moscow Mitch is the reason all this is happening. Moscow is the biggest monster in the swamp.

  52. This is troubling in that Trump's cult, should he lose in November, will be going around in a rage, claiming, "Well they done told us that he was a gonna win by forty points, so it must be them there Mexicans and Arabs that they been a shuttlin' to the polling places in them danged libtard Demonrat busses that done made him lose it!!" Then they'll lose it.

  53. Polls now mean nothing. It makes no difference who the dem candidate is. The "election" will be so corrupt, so "fixed", so crooked only the naive will think it will be "fair". Even, should the evil, sucker mouth, pukin' puppet traitor in chief "lose" (no way will that happen), the orange rectal cancer will refuse to leave office through some ruse. It will make no difference what the ruse is, the SJC, the DOJ and the senate are in the orange scum bag's pocket. There will be no one to remove his fat, treasonous ass.

  54. I was in a Sprouts Farmers Market earlier today and an elderly man in his 70's, I presume, wearing a MAGA hat. He had a basketball shaped belly, indicative of severe liver disease, scraggly skin, needed a cane to walk and had his cart full of items loaded with carbohydrates. Go figure.

  55. David, can you please provide some hope in where we could find that has odds NOT benefitting Trump…for instance in this one he is an outrageous favourite. I know last week somewhere i saw a report and checked a whole bunch of other sites..which were equally depressing. Please give me some hope

  56. See this is why you guys lost in 2016 you all think yourselves so much better than everyone else simply for having a different opinion that have been blinded by your own hatred towards yourselves losing that's why Donald Trump won the 2016 election and will most likely win the 2020 all due to your own self arrogance

  57. There have been numerous polls done in the past year that showed that EVERY Dem candidate would beat Trump. That's assuming most Democrats and Independents vote for the nominee – along with the Republicans who haven't lost their minds – then Trump is going down. Anyone who says different is pushing their own agenda of misinformation. It's ridiculous to suggest this will be a replay of 2016… Hillary was widely disliked and Trump was an unknown to many, who gave him the benefit of the doubt. In 2020, we know what Trump is all about, and as long as Dems vote for the Dem nominee (and not be childish about it if it's not their first choice) then Trump will lose. Everything else is just propaganda.

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