We have a voice mail number. That number is 2192, David P here is a voicemail, from someone
who seems to have a misinformed rightwing friend. Let me put it that way. Hi David, career, I love the show. Keep up the great work, anyways, a Republican friend of mine
said that Trump is leading the polls, 40 points ahead of any democratic candidate. Is this true also… Do you think it’s a realistic possibility that Democrats may lose the house in November, should we
be concerned about that? Thanks, so on the second question first, Democrats are widely expected to maintain their control of
the House of Representatives in 2020. if that changes, we will have new forecasting for you, no Donald Trump is not leading every Democratic candidate by 40 points in fact he’s losing to every
Democratic candidate, he’s losing by the largest margin of Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden but Michael Bloomberg, I believe is also leading Trump and hypothetical 2020 Matos. What I will say
is, I question how much those hypothetical polls are worth right now. But your friend is wrong. Either way, there is no factual basis that would suggest Trump is leading
anybody by 40 points or even four points in national hypothetical matchups where it starts to get dicey and we have to look more at the details. And this is why blanket saying anybody beats Trump
in November or simply saying, Only my candidate beat, Trump in November. The reality is that November is likely to come down to some key states, and when you look at some of those key
states, including states like Wisconsin, for example, in hypothetical headtohead “matchups between Trump and the people vying to be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominees those
numbers look okay, for Trump. And when you step back and say, “Well we saw in 2016 that Trump can lose the national popular
vote by three but still win the electoral college. That’s when you have to start and think maybe it doesn’t matter that Trump’s losing to burning and “bian by four because if it tightens to just three
that could be accurate. And yet, if Trump does okay in Wisconsin whatever those other key states are Trump can still be reelected. And that’s why I don’t know how much we should be necessarily
talking about and thinking about the race in the context of those hypothetical matchup polls. I actually tweeted last night. I don’t believe a lot of people regularly tweet me. They say David only
X can be Donald Trump in the Fall, Bernie supporters will say Only Bernie can be Trump some BI and supporters will say only bite and can beat Trump Yang supporters. Still say Yang shouldn’t
have dropped out because only gang can beat Trump. Cool, see, supporters will say tools must stay “indicesonly tools you can beat Trump.
I don’t think that’s true about any of the candidates. I believe this election is fundamentally going to come down to, does the Democratic nomination process, do selfinflict the damage, for example, a
very ugly convention can that it’s attacking each other in ways that will lead to depressed, turnout in November. That is question one, that will determine the outcome in November number two, what is
the perception of the economy? Notice that I don’t say what is the actual state of the economy 03/03/20 Page 14 of 16
davidpakmanshow20200302commercialfree perception is all that matters is the economy perceived to be doing well, it is very difficult.
Historically, this is just the fact, it’s very difficult historically to knock out an incumbent president running for reelection when the economy is perceived to be doing well, if the stock market is up,
and unemployment is down, that is perceived to be a pretty good economy, even if for a lot of people stagnant wages, under employment. We know I’m not arguing, I’m saying, the perception is
what matters. I think that is fundamentally what will determine the results of November.
If Democrats don’t selfinflict damage in getting to a nominee it is going to be about who chooses to go out and vote. What is the turnout and what is the perception of the economy at the time?
Tell me I’m wrong, I would love to hear from you on the bonus show today, New Yorkers are dealing with day one of the statewide statewide plastic bag ban, we have a new image of Earth’s
new mini moon and like mini moon and two women in Boston have been charged after police say they attacked a woman and her daughter, because they overheard them speaking Spanish very ugly
stuff, from here in the city of Boston. All of those stories and more on today’s bonus so don’t miss it. Become a member or a patron to get